Welpfleet got into its first major supercap fight:
The Welpfleet Canes destroyed two super-carriers (a Hel and a Wyvern) and nine carriers, for the loss of about 150 BCs and virtually their entire special team. On the one hand, it's a clear victory for GSF: the new tactic worked, even with a very large supercap contingent on the field. On the other hand, I have to wonder if RaidenDOT didn't play this one a little dumb. There were very few GSF hictors and dictors on the field. All the GSF hictors were killed to the last ship in about three minutes, and it appears that their dictors were popped as quickly as they appeared.
So why lose any super-caps at all? Was the GSF fleet doing that much DPS? The time-stamps on the kills give us some clues: it looks like Raiden started attacking the hictors too late. The Hel died while three of the hictors were still standing. The Wyvern died about five minutes later with one hictor either still alive or dying almost simultaneously.
So that's lesson one: if you're going to bring your super-cap fleet, make sure they make killing hictors and dictors a priority. Once the hictors were dead, Raiden took no further super-cap losses.
As for the carrier kills... the number of carriers on the field -- about 15 -- is clearly insufficient. In a major fleet fight, carriers need to be used en masse or not at all. There's no way this small number of carriers could support each other in the face of the GSF attack, even if they'd been R&K Pantheon fit. They weren't. All but one were somewhat hardened triage carriers that wouldn't have lasted two minutes under that many GSF Canes. There's no way any of them survived even a single triage cycle, and in triage, they can't get reps from the other carriers on field, even if the reppers on the other carriers had been ideal, which they definitely were not.
So, overall for this first test case of the Welpfleet, victory doesn't go to the winner so much as the loss goes to the loser. Raiden played this one really dumb. The individual Raiden pilots (that lived) seemed to have a grand time, but the FC really should have looked more closely at his fleet composition before taking this GSF gang on.
One final note: if you are a kill-board whore and were to pick a side to be part of in this fight, assuming you lived, which side would you have wanted to be on? The GSF side got 11 capital and super-capital kills, plus a half-dozen expensive sub-cap kills, worth some 50 billion ISK on their individual kill-boards. The Raiden side, on the other hand, killed almost 200 ships. The ISK killed wasn't anything even approaching the GSF tally, but getting on even half of those 200 kill-mails is a battle you'd remember for a long, long time. ;-) Kinda fun to think about.
Anyway, you can bet the other Welpfleet targets out there will be studying this test case closely and deciding how to adapt.