Right. I've been thinking this for six weeks. I'll bet others have, too. But since nobody else seems inclined to say it, I'm going to. Here goes.
The winter expansion is not going to include Establishments. Whatever idea CCP had for this feature isn't even close to ready. They tried, and failed, to put something together that EVE's players couldn't break in 30 seconds flat. When the Establishments team tests four or five toons walking around together in one room, their test machines catch fire. It isn't ready, it isn't going to be ready, and CCP is in panic mode.
That's why we haven't seen so much as concept art for what the Establishments will look like this year. That's why they're suddenly so open to a 180 degree change in direction.
The winter expansion will include the three remaining racial CQs, whatever mini-features we've been seeing that CCP can scrape together in time for late December (new cynos, time dilation, super cap nerfs, ship spinning, logi warp speed, new font, Dram nerf, a few other rebalances hastily thrown together), and that's... pretty much it. This expansion won't even get a name, other than an Incarna version number.
The Zulu devblogs will hurriedly and very apologetically explain that there wasn't enough time to put together FiS features or additional Incarna features in time for this year. But instead, there will be an actual, new-content new expansion sometime in late spring with all sorts of great FiS features that players have been asking for for two years. So please please please stick with them as they take the game in the direction we want it to go.
That's it. That's my prediction. No Establishments, at least not until next summer at the earliest.