Welcome to Jester's Trek.
I'm your host, Jester. I've been an EVE Online player for about six years. One of my four mains is Ripard Teg, pictured at left. Sadly, I've succumbed to "bittervet" disease, but I'm wandering the New Eden landscape (and from time to time, the MMO landscape) in search of a cure.
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Friday, November 11, 2011

Kill of the Week: The future

There are two obvious choices for Kill of the Week this week, both of whom were doing very similar things.  In the end, though, I'm going to go with this one because of what it says about the future of the game:
http://eve-kill.net/?a=kill_detail&kll_id=11441587

The more famous kill this week was of course this one:
http://eve-kill.net/?a=kill_detail&kll_id=11433536

You can read all about how this kill happened and the circumstances at the EN24 article written about same.  Short version, this particular gentleman figured that he could evac several billion ISK worth of dead-space goodies if he did it right before downtime.  "Running out the clock" is a pretty common tactic for this sort of thing.  I've done it myself (it's one of the very few advantages of playing EVE in California).  Unfortunately, this Widow pilot made two rather critical mistakes:
  • he left too much time on the clock... after all, how long does it take to jump one system?; and,
  • he didn't bother to let his scout alt actually scout before he warped his Widow.  Ooops.
And of course, HED-GP is an obvious place to have a tactical warp-in.  It's rather silly not to, if you spend any time at all in that area.  Anyway, these are not mistakes he's likely to make again, so let's move on to the Orca kill.

First, I've written about how to super-tank an Orca before, and if you run valuable cargo in your Orca, this is how you do it.  The hull-tanked Orca probably would have come through this gank attempt in good shape.  Armor-tanking an Orca is a ridiculously silly proposition, but few people think of the Reinforced Bulkheads mod, so that's a minor mistake.

The major mistake was carrying this much crap in an Orca's cargo hold in the first place.  As many of the comments correctly state, if this is what was in the cargo hold (visible to Cargo Scanners), what was in the Corporate Hangar Array and Ship Maintenance Array (which wasn't)?  We can certainly make a guess: eight Strategic Cruiser hulls.  The Orca can carry four in its SMA (fit) and four in its CHA (unfit).  This increases the value of this kill another 1.5 billion.  Worse yet, it's entirely possible that the CHA was just full of yet more subsystems.  ;-)

At the top of the post, I mentioned that this kill speaks to EVE's future.  And it does so because this kill caused the destruction of nine tech 1 battleships with an aggregate value of a billion ISK or so.  For a 30 billion ISK gank, this is small potatoes.

But of course, come winter, the king of the suicide gank are going to be the tier 3 battle cruisers, notably the Tornado and the Talos, both of which can easily match the DPS coming off this battleship fleet.  And while they'll initially be expensive, once the BPOs are researched, come 2012, this sort of gank is going to be remarkably cheap for the gank fleet.

I spent a little bit of time ISKing up this week in an incursion fleet to buy myself a new shiny toy.  During the fleet, I tried to explain the implications of this to the pilots of several two billion ISK battleships.  They either didn't get it, or dismissed the risk.

They'll learn differently soon enough.

9 comments:

  1. Apparently you haven't heard, but CCP is removing insurance from high-sec GCC losses.

    Even with 3TBCs, it's going to be a lot more expensive.

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  2. I heard, all right. It's not going to make any difference, and if you think it will, you're kidding yourself. The only thing that will be safe after this winter that isn't currently safe is moving 100m loads with T1 haulers. That will no longer be worth ganking. Anything more? Still a target.

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  3. It will be a wash for suicide gankers. Since it used to cost 40M (or so after insurance) Once the tier3 BC's get up and running it will be about the same cost. Ganking will continue, the nerf *might* weed out the casual ganker but not the professional ones, in my opinion.

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  4. Apparently Jester doesn't understand the mindset of the people flying multi-billion ISK Mission/Incursion running boats: when they get ganked, they just grind away with their billion-ISK backup boat until they have their 35B ISK pimpmobile back up and running.

    They will not learn, they'll just keep grinding ISK to keep replacing boats that they enjoy flying, until they can't replace their boats fast enough. At that point, they'll find something else to do with their time: play Rift, play WoW, play STO. But they'll have been burned by EVE, and they'll have left. Some of them will be vaguely aware that they were referred to as "loot piñatas" by the people who mocked them as they were being blown up, but they won't understand the implications.

    It's not about ROI, it's not about ISK/hr, it's simply about having something to do in their spare time that is mildly entertaining, in a country where one can't simply rock up to the Bedouin camp and smoke some hashish while watching beautiful women dance.

    That is to say, for them EVE is simply an entertaining pass-time, not even a "game", and certainly not a "hobby".

    These people won't "learn" to not fly shiny ships. For them the entertainment is spending virtual currency on more powerful ships so their explosions happen faster and are accompanied by prettier lights and distinctive sounds. Once the Tornado and friends start ripping these loot piñatas open more frequently and more cheaply than any insured T1 alpha battleship can, we won't see any screams in the forums. There will be no campaign about how the CSM is misleading CCP. There will simply be unsubscriptions, accompanied by a desperate attempt to "balance" the unbalanceable. The tier 3's will get nerfed, CONCORD will be buffed, but that won't bring the loot piñatas back.

    When you fish out a fishery, is it the fishes fault for being so tasty?

    ReplyDelete
  5. I'd like to hear your thoughts on a subject that I've not seen anyone touch yet. As you pointed out this winter could spell the end of the 2 bil isk PvE ships. What will this do to the market of faction mods? Will this dry up the market, drive prices down, or be redistributed over a wider breadth. Will the new rule be 1 per ship?

    It will be interesting to see how the markets react. With fewer 2 bil Isk ships floating around (and don't be fooled, some idiots will still fly them), those oh so profitable mission 4's will take longer, driving down the available isk for everyone. Interesting times.

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  6. Jester, if you think it will be that much profitable why are you not doing it right now?

    Both the DPS of gank ships and the running costs of ganks will remain about the same.

    It is as if CCP is removing insurance payout from ganks just to keep things exactly the same in face of tier 3 BCs.

    And, no, buffed destroyers will ensure 100m T1 haulers can be properly ganked at affordable prices.

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  7. Here's a thought for you: How fast does it take to bring down a 2B isk fitted Machariel with a Tornado?

    How many Tornados would you need to take out a Machariel in a .5 sec system in order to do so before Concord arrived? I'm guessing at least a few...

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  8. My point was that the effective cost of suicide ganking will rise. Rather than costing 30% of the apocalypse/tempest hull (100M), it will be the full price of a 3TBC hull (about 55M). This increases the total cost of alpha ganks by about 50%.

    On the other hand, all the ice miners that complained about ganking getting easier and celebrated when insurance was removed are going to be sad to discover that not only are destroyers better than ever, but nobody gives a shit about insuring their Thrasher in the first place.

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  9. I've already shot at battleships using the new battlecruisers- bad idea, since they have the same kind of guns but actually have the tank to go with em. (the only thing worse to shoot at with a tier 3 BC is a T3 cruiser)

    I don't think the new BCs have a given "purpose" for being created by CCP, other than to be new ships for everybody to play with. Most of the other motivations I've heard attached to them (shiny mission boat ganker/capital ship hunter) don't actually hold a lot of water.....The new BCs will probably be better at stopping supply freighters from getting to nullsec than they will be at anything else.

    ReplyDelete

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