Welcome to Jester's Trek.
I'm your host, Jester. I've been an EVE Online player for about six years. One of my four mains is Ripard Teg, pictured at left. Sadly, I've succumbed to "bittervet" disease, but I'm wandering the New Eden landscape (and from time to time, the MMO landscape) in search of a cure.
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Sunday, December 18, 2011

Which way would they jump?

From one of my all-time favorite bad movies, Judge Dredd:
ABC warrior: Status?
Rico: Bodyguard.
ABC warrior: Commander?
Rico: Rico.
ABC warrior: Mission?
Rico: Mission?
Rico: We're going to war.
ABC warrior: Warrr...

Which direction would they strike?  That question has been on the minds of every Goon-watcher for months.  We all knew they were going to strike in some direction, and soon, and we had a pretty good idea that direction would be roughly eastward.  As I've said on this blog a few times, the Goons have attempting to clear Delve, but their hearts really haven't been in it.  The mission down there, after all, is essentially constructive and Goons historically aren't all that good at essentially constructive things.  Even Mittens himself has now said Delve was a "twiddling", "half-assed" campaign.

So, we knew the Goons were eventually going to strike, and this time with a serious effort.  They seemed to be waiting for TiDi to do it.  But TiDi was coming soon.  When the Goons gave in to their normal impulses, which direction would those impulses take them?  That question is now answered.

Taking advantage of internal divisions in White Noise. and that alliance's (rather silly) decision to reset their USTZ allies, Mittens has announced that GSF is going to be invading Branch and burning down the alliance to their northeast.  The Delve campaign is over, and Mittens flatly says as much in the SOTG.

The invasion of Branch is now in full swing:

The Goons seem to have achieved total strategic surprise... even the towers in WN. seem to be stronted for USTZs, stupidly.  Even more stupidly, there are almost 20 systems in Branch that WN has never bothered to establish sov in to prevent invaders from doing the same.  The Goons decided not to wait for TiDi because of the serious internal divisions in White Noise.  Those internal divisions almost certainly left them distracted and vulnerable.  If you're interested in those details, listen to the whole SOTG.

In short, the Goons are going to try to burn everything down, and seem to be off to a good start.  Expect this to be a short, ugly, brutal campaign... unless WN's former allies -- particularly RaidenDOT -- start intervening.  Will they?  Lovely question.  Stay tuned.

Even better question... what impact is this going to have on Goonswarm Shrugged?  Mittens also flat-out says that the Blue Ice interdiction is over.  He indicates that Goons involved were instructed to go ahead and dump their remaining Oxytope stocks a few days ago.  But will the Goons that are so enjoying griefing ice bears get that message?  There haven't been large volumes of Oxytopes sold on the market yet and the price still seems pretty stable...


  1. I wouldn't trust Mittens on the Interdiction being over. He seems the type to throw that in there in the hopes that carebears will take his word for it.

  2. The ice interdiction will be over sometime after Goonsurance is cancelled. Goonsurance will essentially be self-maintaining since the profits to be made from the oxytopes market are so great in comparison to the price on keeping a dozen ice belts clear of miners.

    For each belt, you spend 4 T1 destroyers to kill 1 hulk every 15 minutes. That's all it takes to keep it up. A few million ISK an hour, plus the time to drag standings back up to +something (which is such a burden, since L4 missions are so unprofitable).

  3. Nvm, apparently it's in the GSF forums as well courtesy of reddit

  4. No, the interdiction is officially over. There are still plenty of ways for Goons to mess with high sec pubbies but we're no longer doing a focused and coordinated attack on any single resource. Those of us who have fallen in love with blowing up miners are free to continue doing it but now we can spread out and blow up people mining all over the universe...not just Gallente ice belts.

    Once the Branch campaign is over we'll probably do another interdiction (assuming we don't blow ourselves up somehow) but for now blue ice is no longer illegal to mine in high sec.

  5. @Planetary Genocide - I believe it.

    The Interdiction has been more or less of a failure, in that it did not meet Mittens' expectations. Sure, a lot of ships were blown up and oxytope prices went up, but not sufficiently to impact the Eve economy. Also, it is now apparent that existing stockpiles of oxytopes are much higher than originally projected - demand for oxytopes reduced in proportion to the price rise and shows no sign of increasing.

    Goons traders are sitting on massive piles of unsold oxytopes, which they were continuing to accumulate throughout Gallente space, in order to keep the price up in Jita. This is tying up a lot of capital in stock and buy orders.

    In the end, only a few ill-prepared industrialists and jump ship pilots were negatively affected. Many industrialists actually profited, since they simply exchanged their POS towers and sold their oxytope stockpiles at the inflated prices.

    Worse yet, the ice miners, incl. the bot fleets, are back in force and making 2-3 times as much ISK on blue ice than prior to the Interdiction (which has more than paid for the loss of a few ships).

    Finally, Goonwaffe and allies have simply been unable to maintain 23/7 enforcement of the Interdiction, during the past month, obviously due to the lack of interest of Goon pilots. Users of oxytopes have been taking advantage of the lapse in coverage to mine ice and replenish their oxytope stockpiles.

    So, with the new offensive underway, the Interdiction is now a distraction and Mittens just wants to "claim victory" and have it go away.

  6. Anon2136's analysis feels like the correct one to me.

  7. I find it hugely interesting that there are more analysis of the ice interdiction than goons invading WN!

  8. Oxygen Isotopes more then doubling in Price sure sounds like a failure to me.
    Making a ton of People change their towers also was very pleasant for the people owning them i'm sure.

    While their interdiction didn't crash the economy like some people might have hoped, it was by no means a failure when looking at the effects it had.

    It will be interesting how long before Oxygen Topes are back to their old Price though.

  9. You are basing your analysis on the assumption that the interdiction was entirely about ISK. I don't think it was.

  10. If Anon2136 is right, does that say anything about the ideas of removing ice from hisec entirely?

    I wonder how many Goons were mining ice in null and selling it direct to cash buyers in other null sec regions? Those folks seem happy to sell super capitals to their enemies. I can't see that a little bit of ice would be too much to ask.

  11. IRC was mining ice in Null Sec, not goons.

  12. The net economic effect of the interdiction was insignificant - not even on par with Helicity's Hulkageddon. (Hulkageddon targets *all* miners, not just the ones mining Gallente blue ice, so it has a much wider effect, despite running for a shorter period.)

    The ice interdiction was not just about ISK, but about controlling a significant part of the Eve economy. This was a failure. If the interdiction had worked out as originally planned, rest assured that Mittens had planned to expand it to the other ice types.


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