Welcome to Jester's Trek.
I'm your host, Jester. I've been an EVE Online player for about six years. One of my four mains is Ripard Teg, pictured at left. Sadly, I've succumbed to "bittervet" disease, but I'm wandering the New Eden landscape (and from time to time, the MMO landscape) in search of a cure.
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Monday, February 6, 2012

QOTW: That's a lot of supers

This week's quote of the week comes thanks to CCP Diagoras.  I know I complained about the trivial information that he'd been posting on Twitter a couple of weeks ago, but I'm happy to report that -- if you're willing to dig -- he's posting some really interesting information now!  The trick is, Diagoras gives you one bit of information today, another last Tuesday, and a third a month ago.  You kinda have to put them together if you want to build a picture.

I'm going to cover some of this in detail, but let's start with this as the QOTW:
23 supercaps destroyed in Jan, alliances with most kills were Solar Fleet (5), PL (3).

Now, let's go back a month, when Diagoras said this:
Almost 1 supercap destroyed a day on average in 2011. 355 total, 269 supercarriers and 86 titans. #tweetfleet

Now, granted, there were a couple of really good-size super-cap battles in 2011, notably when the NC and the DRF first clashed last spring.  So, you can't look at January's average of 0.75 supers dying per day and compare it directly to 2011's full year average of 0.97 supers dying per day.

Yet.  We'll need a few more months of data first.

But one thing is clear: a few ratting Titans aside, we're seeing more super-cap blobs being used in 2012 than we saw in 2011, with generally better fits, being used in smarter ways, with fewer stupid losses.  As a result, I think I can confidently predict that there will be fewer super kills in 2012 than there were in 2011.  On 19 January, Diagoras tweeted this:
@DarkeMaske 4,213 supers being flown total. 3,384 supercarriers, 829 titans. #tweetfleet
Six days later, on the 25th, this:
60 titans, 60 supercarriers built in December; 45 titans, 95 supercarriers built in November. #tweetfleet

That means we're seeing 4.20 supers being built per day on average in those two months.  Even if we assume that 1 super will be killed per day on average this year, that 4213 supers at the beginning of 2012 is set to become just shy of 5500 supers at the end of 2012.  That's an increase of 28% in one year.

Want to hear the really scary part?  If we take the November/December average as the average for 2012, that's fewer supers than were built in 2011.  The total count of supers built in 2011?
2011: 1,646 supercarriers built, 370 titans built. 269 supercarriers destroyed, 86 titans destroyed. That's a lot of supers. #tweetfleet
That's 5.5 supers built per day in 2011, in fact.

Why is this a problem?  Someone actually asked about this on Failheap last week.  I'll have a bit to say about that tomorrow.

In the meantime, thanks to CCP Diagoras for the much-improved information!  Keep it coming!  I'll be piecing together a lot of disparate tweets about other topics in the next week or so.

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