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I'm your host, Jester. I've been an EVE Online player for about six years. One of my four mains is Ripard Teg, pictured at left. Sadly, I've succumbed to "bittervet" disease, but I'm wandering the New Eden landscape (and from time to time, the MMO landscape) in search of a cure.
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Thursday, March 8, 2012

Betting card

Voting is now open in the CSM7 elections.  If you're interested in who I endorse to win and hope will win the top seven seats, then please see my two posts on the matter, one dealing with potential new faces to CSM7 and the other dealing with CSM6 incumbents.  I myself placed my votes the day before yesterday for Two Step, Trebor Daehdoow, and Leboe, so my voting is done.

So let's talk about who I think will win and why, starting with...

The Top Seven

The Mittani.  Easy pick.  He has no real competition for the Goon vote, which could be 5000 or more votes, and will be a strong contender among GSF's large surrounding pet contingent living in Pure Blind and Cloud Ring.  To that he'll add a healthy selection of non-Goon votes based on his performance in CSM6 and on name recognition.  Mittens will be the chair of CSM7.  I don't think he'll hit his stated goal of getting 10,000 votes (there just doesn't seem to be the same level of enthusiasm for the process this year), but I think he'll hit 7500 votes pretty comfortably.  I caught hell from my friends for endorsing him, but I'm a realist.  Mittens has done a good job as Chair, is a great representative for EVE players at large, and he deserves the post.  He'll get it.

Dovinian.  I don't know much about him.  I don't have to know much about him.  He's the TEST candidate, running virtually unopposed for their votes, and he'll get elected pretty comfortably.  We'll learn how good a CSM member he is after he's in.

Greene Lee.  Another bloc candidate.  Last year, the southern bloc wasn't really represented well on CSM6, unless you count Seleene as their representative (and I really don't, though I know many do).  This year, I think they're going to make a sustained effort to get their guy in the top seven.  The southern bloc is peaking at just the right time (C-J, et. al.) and if Greene can take advantage of that resurgence of spirit, he'll have no problems getting in.  He'll also draw a good percentage of the Russian vote that is pissed at...

UAxDEATH.  Death should have no problems being reelected.  His bloc is also resurgent and he's proven himself a good representative for that part of the player base.  He'll fight off a laughable palace coup attempt from Xenuria with ease.

Hans Jagerblitzen.  Hans has run a simply masterful campaign, equal to the strong effort that Seleene put in last year.  He's got a block of the player base pushing for him that's unrepresented and highly motivated to start from, and he seems to be everywhere this cycle.  Hell, I spotted him campaigning in the low-sec incursion channel a couple of days ago.  I really look forward to seeing what he can do on CSM7.

Two Step.  I've covered why I'm impressed with him in detail when I endorsed him.  He's proven himself a fine member of CSM6, proved he's willing and able to do the work, and he's run a great, highly visible campaign.  He'll make the top seven this year, and he deserves one of these slots.

Seleene.  He won't rack up all of the votes he did last year, and I can't see him coming in anywhere near last year's second-place finish, but he did great work on CSM6, he's worked hard to gather support this year, and I think he'll be elected to a top seven slot.


The Alternates

I didn't do as well with these predictions last year, but hey, I'll give it a shot.  This group starts with...

Trebor Daehdoow.  And damn if that won't be a little heart-breaking if it goes down this way.  I want Trebor to make the top seven... but I don't think he's going to.  I think he's going to fall just short.  There's just too much competition this year, the bloc candidates have larger blocs to call from, and his get-out-the-vote efforts just don't seem to be getting the traction that they did last year.  I hope I'm wrong.  I want to be wrong.  In my opinion, Trebor was CSM6's hardest-working member.  I'll take it a step further than that: I don't think Mittens would have been nearly as successful without Trebor underpinning him.  But I think Trebor's going to be listening to the Summits on speaker-phone this year.

Meissa Anunthiel.  Matter of fact, I think it's possible that Meissa will out-do Trebor for votes this time around.  Where Meissa gets all his votes, I have no idea, but he's shown that getting his voters into the booths is his strong point when election season rolls around.  I don't think he'll be all that disappointed to be an alt this time, either.  It might even be what he wants.  He seems to be running a quieter campaign to match his CSM4 effort as opposed to his very active CSM6 effort.

Elise Randolph.  He's going to continue to be a bridesmaid rather than a bride.  Matter of fact, I think that might just be perpetual.  Elise has a lot of fans, but a lot of those fans are bitter-vets that CBA to actually vote for him (assuming they still have EVE accounts to vote with).

Prometheus Exenthal.  Ditto.

Riverini.  I think the editor of EN24 got off to a strong start, but he hurt himself in a number of ways.  I'll talk about it in my post-election wrap-up post when I write it.  Still, he's got enough name recognition and enough fans of his hard work that I think he'll eke out an alternate slot.  The interesting bit will be watching if Mittens tries to marginalize or exclude him.  I don't think that'll happen.  Mittens and Trebor got along on CSM6.  Mittens and riv will get along on CSM7, particularly since I believe Mittens won't have to share a conference room with him.

Kelduum Revaan.  If I'm wrong about anyone, I suspect I'll be wrong about Kelduum.  He's hard to figure.  He'll definitely pull in a strong share of E-UNI votes.  He just doesn't seem to be making many in-roads into the Empire vote that's his for the taking.  But it's hard to figure what Empire voters will do until they do it.  Wish we were getting daily stats for voting they way we got them last year.  If voter turn-out was extra high, I'd put Kelduum higher.  I might even be completely wrong and he might make a top seven slot.  But I don't think he ran all that good a campaign, and I think he'll only just scrape in as an alt.

Alekseyev Karrde.  He didn't have any business being a first-tier or even a second-tier candidate this time around.  His platform, when you get down to it, is really rather narrow.  Still, he ran a really solid campaign and I think he's picking up the Empire voters that Kelduum just isn't.  I'm probably wrong, but I think he'll squeak in.


Wildcards

Lyris Nairn.  Will the Goons try to push through two candidates this year?  I think the answer is no.

Mintrolio.  Will the :lolcsm: voters sneak in another candidate after Mazz?  I think the answer is no to this one, too.  Matter of fact, I think the :lolcsm: "voting block" is done as a major influencer of CSM elections.  But if I'm wrong, they'll actually vote for...

Xenuria.  Will a raging loon make it onto CSM7?  I have to admit that it'd be entertaining as hell.  But no, I can't see this campaign working.

Voloses.  Will a combined platform of NC former glories and pandering to Empire-dwellers work?  Again, I think the answer is no.


And that's that.  We'll see how my predictions come out in a couple of weeks.  CSM7 election results will be announced during the keynote speech at Fanfest, 24 March.

EDIT (8/Mar/2012): I completely missed the location for the daily stats.  Last year IIRC, they were posted in the "Voting is open" thread.  This year, they have their own thread.  So far, 10k more votes per day than last year.  We saw a similar effect last year and it represented one motivated bloc rather than an overall more-motivated voting base.  We'll see if it means the same this year.  Thanks to Mynxee and Two Step for pointing me at the stats!

20 comments:

  1. CCP Diagoras is publishing more or less daily voting stats here.

    7th March, 16:00: 19,519. CSM6: 8,740 - CSM5: 2,331
    7th March, 22:00: 26,351. CSM6: 14,966 - CSM5: 4,047
    8th March, 13:00: 31,933. CSM6: 21,056 - CSM5: 5,347
    8th March, 21:00: 33,854. CSM6: 23,385 - CSM5: 8,583

    Almost 34K votes already cast. I think it is safe to say that my prediction of less interest in this election is right out the window. But it has helped that we have some exciting new faces, notably Hans Jagerblitzen. I hope like hell he gets a Top 7 seat.

    ReplyDelete
  2. I think the only place you might be majorly wrong is with the Russian vote. They are split a *lot* more this year. They have:
    1) Death, who has a shrinking coalition compared to last year
    2) Greene Lee, who will get AAA, but will SOLAR and friend vote for him?
    3) Fon, who is a Nazi retard, but is an eve-ru forum mod
    4) Korvin, who is a former CSM, and also has a lot of eve-ru support

    Hell, I am even reaching out to the Russian wormhole guys and taking some votes as well.

    I wouldn't expect 2 Russians in the top 7, and I wouldn't be shocked to see just one of the 4 make the CSM at all (and maybe just a bottom 7 spot!) Remember, last year they got death in the top 9 and Krutoj as 3rd alt. Given the increase in voting numbers, there is no way they get two top 7 spots.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Fon may be out of the running. His campaign thread is locked.

      But yeah, it'll be interesting to see if the rest split more than they did last year. I personally think there's enough split between the DRF and southern alliances to make room for both of them, particularly since Greene should have a fairly strong -A- backing as well as Russian votes.

      Good comment!

      Delete
    2. he is still apearing on the candidate page

      Delete
  3. CONFRIMIGN - YOU DO REALISE I AM HAFIGN 4 ALLIANCE BEHIND ME ?

    LOL POASTIGN IS ONE THINGS, CSM IS ANOTHER.

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  4. It's not your fault - nullsec politics are extremely murky.

    Elise is an easy Top7; he has RDN, PL, Ev0ke, and some Init backing.

    Mintrolio is not actually a troll, but the Nulli Secunda + friends candidate; he'll be splitting some votes with Greene Lee but will probably net an alt slot.

    Seleene, Meissa and Trebor are all kind of in trouble. I think it's really doubtful Seleene Top 7s - he /was/ the Awagon bloc guy last time, he joined PL after winning, and Awagon is furious about it - yet PL is all voting for Elise.

    I imagine Kelduum will Top 7, but if he doesn't he'll be at the 8/9 borderzone.

    FW and W-space are motivated this year, which is good. But neither have the gotv-whipping methods that null blocs do, such as jabber broadcasts or unified forums. Two Step will probably Top 7, Hans a high-ranked alt. He could surprise.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Interesting! If I'm interpreting you correctly, you're saying the top seven is going to be something like:

      you, Dovinian, Elise, Two Step, Greene, Death...

      plus one more that at least six people (Trebor, Seleene, Hans, Meissa, Mint, Kelduum) will be fighting over.

      If it's Mint or Seleene, that's six out of seven seats in the hands of null-sec bloc candidates. I can't imagine CCP doing anything other than face-palming if that happens... And when CCP face-palms, they over-react. c/d?

      Delete
    2. Mittens is really hoping for Kelduum. I imagine he sees a pet in Keld. The dude knows dick-all outside of the corporation interface and mechanics ... so Mittani probably sees Keld as someone who'll happily side with him so as to not look stupid during non-corp mechanics debates.

      Delete
  5. The blocs have remained pretty much unchanged since last year. I believe the increase in interest this year is from non-bloc voters. Which changes the entire complexion of the election. Hans could very well give The Mittani a run for his money for the chairmanship. I'm now betting Hans is going to finish a very strong second.

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  6. You don't think Leboe will make it in?

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    Replies
    1. I'd really really like to see him make it, but there aren't enough small alliances in EVE left to make a voting bloc.

      It's pretty freakin' sad, tbh. Blobba victa.

      Delete
    2. I voted Leboe but doubt he will make it in as well.
      But can hope he gets enough votes the small alliance warfare is at least noted.

      Delete
  7. In my opinion Hans will be the biggest troll to the mittani then anyone else. Hans likes to come up with ideas and such like that and doesnt like being a sound board at all. Will strongly go against the mittani's main Chairman principles.

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    Replies
    1. Agreed, Hans stands a good chance of getting top7 high placement. He appeals to most of empire/lowsec, not just the faction warfare guys who he's being put forward by. Many of the -10 lowsec croud will vote for him, if only to put more food on the lowsec table.

      Delete
    2. You make it sound like Hans will be out to troll The Mittani, which isn't the case. Hans supports good ideas, and The Mittani certainly has some. I'd have to imagine Hans conceding to the Nullsec candidates about any ideas that affect Nullsec (which Hans admittedly doesn't have too much experience with).

      More than anything else, Hans is a :goodguy: who likes :goodideas: and he doesn't particularly care where those good ideas come from as long as they get pushed in to CCP's lap with a statement of "MAKE THIS HAPPEN, KTHXBAI".

      Delete
  8. "In my opinion, Trebor was CSM6's hardest-working member. I'll take it a step further than that: I don't think Mittens would have been nearly as successful without Trebor underpinning him."

    Exactly why I voted for him, on one of my accounts.

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  9. On Kelduum: "But I don't think he ran all that good a campaign"

    Kelduum is more of a diplomat than a politician or lobbyist. As such, he has a loyal voting block, but hasn't been nearly as effective as getting an agenda out among the general public as (say) Hans. If elected, Kelduum is likely to deliver exactly what he promises - a good, solid, contributor, not aligned to the major lo-sec blocs - but he needs to do more to inspire the undecided.

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  10. Poetic's observations make sense. Given the support for Hans from many Empire corners, Mittens has a bit of a situation on his hands. CSM 5 demonstrated that a well-liked player without obvious bloc backing can get elected to the chair by a considerable margin. If Hans has managed to rouse the Empire masses, it could happen again despite bloc machinations. Such an upset would not only provide news-worthy election drama, it would prove to non-bloc players that anything is possible if they rally for their cause.

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  11. Forum posters when asked talk most about Mittani / Elise as popular choices. Many understand that Mittani has made a strong impression during his reign but seem to take it for granted that he will continue to do his job. I think he needs a strong vote lead to continue to hold CCP to account. I am most concerned about what I consider to be joke candidates i.e Riverini and Xenuria. Both are delusional timewasters. I am also disappointed that Trebor's campaign letter begins with a swipe at Mittani instead of pushing Trebor's known slow and steady performance. He is not made for Machiavellian intrigues.

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  12. Good prediction and matches what I'd expect although I do Hope Seleene gets that last full seat.

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