Welcome to Jester's Trek.
I'm your host, Jester. I've been an EVE Online player for about six years. One of my four mains is Ripard Teg, pictured at left. Sadly, I've succumbed to "bittervet" disease, but I'm wandering the New Eden landscape (and from time to time, the MMO landscape) in search of a cure.
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Friday, April 6, 2012

Stool

In a couple of weeks, CCP is going to do something so sweeping, so breath-taking, that I'm still having a hard time wrapping my head around it.  It's potentially the biggest change to the game since I started playing the game.  Yet it's proceeding very quietly.  I haven't thought through all of the implications yet -- not by half! -- but it's time to start talking about it.

At the Fanfest presentations, we got to see this chart a lot:


It's the typical three-legged stool of MMO economies, and of RTS economies, for that matter.  You harvest resources.  You use them to build stuff (or craft stuff, if you prefer).  You use that stuff to destroy people or things, either in PvP or PvE.  That creates a need for you or someone else to go back to harvesting, even if it's for something as simple as ammunition.  And the cycle repeats itself.  Theoretically, all of the elements have to be in balance for you to have a stable game.  And yet EVE's balance has always looked a hell of a lot more like this:


The build element is in balance, but the "destroy" part of EVE is definitely in the driver's seat.  Why is this?  Why doesn't EVE collapse in on itself despite the fact that there are damned few "harvesters" out there?

The hidden element of EVE's economy has always been the fact that there are three sources for the basic minerals that make up almost every item in New Eden.  Mining is one source, certainly.  The other two are drone alloys and reprocessing of mission and rat loot.  The latter two sources have always overwhelmed the miners.  And they come from destroying things.  Sure, an industrialist character has to reprocess the alloys or the mission loot sooner or later.  But that's a relatively minor thing; the source is the destruction of rats, not true harvesting.

And despite how imbalanced this has always looked, the EVE economy has functioned like this for years, and it's been very stable.

On April 24, CCP is going to kick "Destroy" in the face:
  • NPC ships will no longer drop manufacturable T1 loot. NPCs will continue to drop modules, however T1 items which have a blueprint will no longer drop, making player manufacturing the primary source for these items.
  • Alloys have been removed from the rogue drones, and bounties have been added to them to bring them in line with other faction mobs.

This means that drones will no longer produce minerals.  This means that the mineral source from missions and ratting will also dry up to nearly nothing.  That means that to build things, someone is gonna have to go out and mine asteroids all day long.

Ho-lee shit.

Needless to say, mineral speculation is completely out of control in the markets.  Most of the minerals have doubled in price, and the ones that haven't doubled have tripled.  Nocxium, my favorite whipping boy, has essentially doubled in value since I last talked about it in February.(1)  And it seems potentially poised to continue to rise in the next month or so.  And you can forget the old T1 ship prices.  You used to be able to buy an Armageddon for 50 million ISK.  That price has also doubled, as have most of the other T1 ship prices.  In the goofy way that cause follows effect in the EVE markets, this is suddenly threatening to make mining -- mining! -- the most valuable profession of all.

It's the high-end minerals that are spiking the most right now.  Crokite is back to being the third most valuable mineral, after falling to number six in February.  And it's very much within the realm of possibility that you'll be able to make 100 million ISK per hour mining Arkonor before the month is out.  It's passing 50 million per hour as I type this.  Look for a second round of bitching about w-space ABC mining from certain members of the CSM.  But hell, Pyroxeres mining is worth more than 20 million per hour right now, and I don't see any reason why it won't hit 35 before long.  The other high-sec ores will follow suit as the Tritanium and Pyerite from module reprocessing dries up.

Like pretty much any large-scale change to the game, it's the richest oldest players that are going to benefit the most.  But they're benefiting in a really odd way: they've got lots and lots of T1 hulls out there.  These are the players that buy their PvP ships by the dozen, after all.  I'm quite sure there are stacks of dozens of Hurricanes, Armageddons, Tempests, Ruptures, Drakes... the list goes on.  And of course there are corps and alliances sitting on millions of cubic meters of "worthless" meta 0 mods.  Suddenly, these items are quite literally money in the bank.  Watch for the economic engine of EVE to grind its gears backward in a month or so when the mineral values peak and all these reprocessed minerals are dumped into the marketplace.

But after that's gone... yeah... someone's gonna have to sit in a Hulk.

Again, I'm still thinking through the implications of all of this, but here's five big ones.

First, CCP Sreegs is going to suddenly find himself under intense pressure.  A lot of the mining that goes on out there is done via botting, and I don't get the impression that this has been all that high on his team's radar to date.  I suspect they've been a lot more focused on missioning and ratting bots.  This is going to have to change in a big damn hurry.  Mining bots are the easiest thing in the world to run and if players have to compete with them in this new gold rush, they're gonna be pissed.

Second, Hulkageddon is coming.  I can't even imagine the freak-out that's going to cause.  It's not outside the realm of possibility that production in New Eden could grind to a halt entirely from lack of materials, causing a second huge spike in T1 ship prices.  That might cause the economy of New Eden to stall entirely.  As ship prices spike, the already risk-averse EVE players are going to do everything they can to avoid loss.  Fights which were previously hard to find may become impossible to find as those ships stay docked up.  Without ships being destroyed, there may not be ships being bought.  That very lack of demand might just reinforce the stall and make it worse.

Third, if you're a US time zone miner, get ready to warm up your angry.  I think it's pretty likely you're going to log into the game to find the belts stripped clean before you can even start mining.  This is a huge buff to EUTZ players, a segment of the EVE population that didn't exactly need a buff.  They've already pretty much got the market cornered on static and dynamic complexes.  And they've already had the mining market cornered if they cared before... and they're definitely going to care now.  USTZ miners might be left with nothing but Omber and Gneiss.

Fourth, since mission rats will be dropping meta1 through meta4 items from now on, expect a huge crash in the price of some of the more expensive high-meta items.  If you're sitting on large stcks of them, now's probably an excellent time to sell them to anyone who's willing to buy.  I'm reminded of what happened to meta MicroWarpdrive prices after the drop rate for them was tweaked...  All those LOL-T1 roams are going to have to become LOL-meta1 roams.  Assuming you can afford the T1 ships themselves.

Fifth and finally, let's go back to those risk-averse PvPers again for a second.  Yeah.  Insurance values for ships are running at between half and two-thirds of ship selling prices right now.  We can expect that gap to increase as ship stocks get bought out and prices continue to rise.  These PvPers, by and large, make a lot of their income from ratting, missioning, and incursions.  All three income pools are being nerfed.(2)  This is going to create a situation where prices double while wages are reduced.  There's a technical name for this phenomenon...


And again, these are just the immediate implications that occur to me.  I'm sure as I think about it some more, more are going to occur to me.

CCP, I have faith in you, but I sure hope you know what you're doing!  This is a massive change to the game's underlying economy and things are going to be very scary for the next few months.

Hang on tight!


(1) There's a funny story about noc, too, that I'll get to later today.
(2) In addition to losing ISK from reprocessing mods, CCP Soundwave has also hinted very loudly that he wants to do an across-the-board reduction in the value of rat bounties, which are going to depress wages even more.

73 comments:

  1. Suddenly I'm feeling a little better about having an alt originally spec'd out for mining...And stockpiling all those minerals.

    But then I also recenlty dropped a decent chunk of isk into my missioning ship.

    Really though, at this point, I'm mostly just excited to ride the eve-o-coaster that will be happening throughout this year.

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  2. To be honest, I think that working on this before they've really shown any semblance of caring about miner botting is pretty ridiculous. All it's going to do is be a kick in the teeth to most people and make bots more profitable. :\

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. 1. CCP ignores mining bots
      2. CCP makes a change massively increasing the value of mining bots
      3. Zillions new mining bots
      4. CCP gets to test the mining bot detection code they've been sitting on???

      Delete
  3. Why won't you just reprocess low meta items? Looks like they'll be worth more as minerals anyway.

    Also the patch notes say they are removing alloys from 'drone regions' do they also mean from hi-sec drone missions?

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    1. Reprocessing of meta1-3 modules and meta1-2 guns may still go on. But there's going to be two pressures on them:

      1) They're worth half the minerals of meta0 mods. That's always been the case.

      2) They're going to be worth much more ISK now that there will be a lack of meta0 mods to fit on new player ships and ships for LOL-T1 roams.

      Currently, meta1-3 mods and meta1-2 guns are worth their reprocessing value or a bit less. That's going to change and as they rise above their reprocessing value, that will take even more mins out of the economy.

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    2. I've done some of the statistics on reprocessing Meta 1-3 modules, and the biggest in terms of reprocess value x drop rate are Prototype 100MN Microwarpdrive, meta 800 and 1600 armor plates, and meta smartbombs. I don't foresee these modules becoming more valuable than their minerals any time soon. People don't use Meta-0 versions of any of those; they use meta 4 or T2.
      From my records, though, reprocessing loot only comes out to about 11% of the income from missions though. It's not a very big source of minerals, and it's about to become somewhat smaller (with fewer Meta-0).

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    3. @Jester -

      1) No, it depends on the module. For example, 800mm nanofibers reprocess the same as 800mm steel plates.

      2) But, in any case, higher value on meta items just means that more people will start cleaning up their missions, rather than leave it all behind. Supply will rise to meet demand, and prices will drop again.

      And, as mineral prices increase, whether due to an actual reduction in the reprocessed minerals, or due to pure market speculation, the cost of T1 modules will also rise proportionally. Correspondingly, the reprocessing value of meta items will increase, too, continuing to make it worthwhile to reprocess the less used meta items.

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    4. I dunno, Jester, i hit Jita couple days ago and checked prices on refining. the quotes i got from my entire list of Angel drops from null showed meta items giving more minerals across the board. no exceptions.
      The only modules i found worth selling straight onto jita market were a few (not all) of the meta-named missile modules.
      As for the plates, it was pretty static. That was the other exception.
      Perhaps it does "depend on the module" but from what i looked at it looked the opposite.

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  4. Well, I suppose it depends on how they tweak the loot tables, but if they just replace the T1 loot with meta loot, without adjusting the overall drop quantities, then everyone is just going to use meta modules and the T1 module market will go away.

    Right now, a typical L4 mission already drops more modules than I can use up in a month. I don't think I've ever had to buy a T1 module off market....

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    1. Dont forget you need the T1 meta 0 for inventions(as long they are cheaper then the other metas)

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    2. Meta 0 modules will always be needed for T2 manufacturing.

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    3. No, you do not need T1 meta 0 items for invention. Meta 0 items do not improve your chances for invention.

      Yes, Meta 0 modules are needed for T2 module/ship manufacturing, but most T2 manufacturers already have the T1 BPOs, since they are required for copying and invention. Building the required Meta 0 module is not a signficant additional effort for a T2 manufacturer.

      Delete
  5. My notes from fanfest say that there was an net ISK faucet of about 25 trillion ISK per month, and that bounties and incursions were major parts of that - 26 Trillion in bounties, and 8 trillion in incursions.

    That has been causing inflation too, wouldn't you say? More ISK in the pockets of every pilot? The average ISK per account went up from 400M to 600M (unfortunately, I can't remember the timeframe on that) so damn right CCP is planning on nerfing bounties.

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    1. That's been going steadily upward, all right. But I think we can blame this on there being a larger proportion of older players in EVE with fewer brand new players.

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  6. As far as I recall, you can still reprocess meta items, so just replacing T1 drops with meta drops won't change the quantities of minerals which can be harvested from NPC loot. A lot of low meta items aren't worth much more than T1 items, and if the drop rates for meta items are increased to replace the T1 drops, well, then their value will drop even further.

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  7. "They've already pretty much got the market cornered on static and dynamic complexes."

    Why would they have cornered dynamic complexes? The re-spawn mechanics are that the site re-spawns somewhere else within it's given region a short time after it's completed. There is no wait till downtime.

    There are fewer people around after downtime, which generally makes it a good time to do exploration, but the respawn mechanics remains the same.

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    1. You touched on the reason without realizing it. Spawn rate remains constant even when there are very few people logged into the game between 0400 and DT. That means when the EUTZ players get into the game, they have six or eight hours of new spawns to pick clean. When the USTZ players get into the game, they have zero hours of new spawns.

      As the Japanese player base gets some SP and knowledge under them, this situation may change in the future.

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    2. I think you didn't understand my point. At any one time there are X number of sites in a given region. When a particular site is completed, it re-spawns somewhere else in the same region (with a slight bias towards spawning in a system with the same type of site).

      There are always roughly the same number of sites waiting to be scanned down. [*]

      [*] It's slightly complicated by the despawning mechanics for the sites that are never worked on, but the overall point is the same.

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    3. No, I'm getting your point just fine. I'm saying that when an EUTZ player logs in right after downtime, all of those sites will be available. He or she just has to find one and go on in.

      When an USTZ player logs in, all those sites are being run. He or she has to hope for a lot more luck.

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    4. The flip side is that a USTZ haul/station trader has a lot more volume to play with.

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    5. The real advantage for EU players is that they can do exploration closer to their "home" systems. When I play in the EUTZ I can scan the nearby systems to where I live and if I don't get any sites I can go about other EVE stuff like looking for fights (or anything really) and in a while I know I can scan again and probably find a site. In the USTZ if a system is "dead" then it will probably stay that way the whole time you play.

      So for the USTZ player finding sites involves a LOT more traveling. Also since the EUTZ player can reasonably re-scan systems to find sites, after you do your first scan of the day on a system and mark all the "junk" anoms in it you don't want (WH, mag), just a quick one probe scan latter will show if any new sites come up. The USTZ player who has to scan more systems for the same anoms will have to scan down more "junk" sites also so it takes longer in the USTZ to find sites too.

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    6. That doesn't make sense. If sites are being actively scanned down and worked, they'll re-spawn elsewhere.

      If you have a completely empty system and you just keep re-scanning it, you have more chance of finding something if people are working sites elsewhere (as eventually one will respawn in your system), than if no one is working on sites (in which case they won't respawn until they age after a few days).

      Or in otherwords, the best chance you have of finding a site is sitting in a bit of non-contiguous high-sec during the USTZ

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  8. I have to disagree about our future! Its not a inflation, its a recession!

    Inflation happens when the price of goods and services increase while the wages are static making your money less valuable.

    In recession, your money will get a lot less valuable since prices increase while wages also decrease!

    The buy power will not be reduced in the next months, it will be severely reduced and that will hurt a lot the 'low and mid classes of eve'.

    I was discussing this with a friend yesterday and one of the things we are talking is, how this is going to affect 0.0 alliances if CCP delivers the other suggestions: stop the moon income and alliances get their money from members. The player topology in 0.0 will change a lot and probably even the 0.0 demographics. Just not sure if in a bad or good way!

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  9. Check out The Nosy Gamer blog. He's been doing some research on the various bot forums. The mining bots have been hit hard.

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    1. Yeah, I've been watching him lately, and he's the newest member of my "Must Read Blogs" as of a couple of days ago.

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  10. And remember, any time we discuss bots it would be a good idea to point people at the Making ISK guide to help them find ways to make ISK legitimately!

    (and I wonder where Akita T has gone)

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  11. Thanks for succinctly solidifying my vague worry, when I heard about the meta 0 nerf.

    And yeah, all the hotshot PVP masters of the universe(that´s including CCP) will soon find out how much fun PVP is in Reapers and with civilian lasers when us bears don´t get some love too. ;)

    BTW, I was under the impression that the -10% bounty nerf is a done deal.
    P.S. if the nocx story is what I think it is, then it doesn´t work anymore. Checked it on my alt. Fuck. :D

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  12. Good post and analysis. A few questions:
    1. If mining is becoming more profitable and high-sec is the obvious place to be stripped clean first, will this drive mining corps into low sec with the appropriate protection and thereby generate more fights?
    2. Will this change mean, that nullsec industrial corps can raise their status and lower their rents as they are now all of a sudden more valuable to their overlords? In other words, nullsec becomes interesting to the non-PvP ers?
    3. I need to read the Dev blog but if Drones don't drop alloys, what _do_ they drop? This means, drone ratting should become faster and make those who do space-rich but mineral-poor.
    4. Your argument that EVE market comes to a grinding halt because of inflated prices and lack of commodities is slightly flawed. Unlike in RL, CCP can subtly adjust the supply side without anyone notice. Make the 'roids slightly bigger, make more of them etc and - very worst case - inject finished product into the economy with anonymous accounts.
    5. You list bots as a scourge and echo the sentiment of many. I may well have missed this but what is the percentage of bots on the economy. Broken down by a) minerals mined by bots v. mined by people and b) bounties / loot received by Plex bots? If it is higher that - say - ~20% today, we have a real issue. Below? Not sure.

    Some musings, thanks for a great article

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  13. As for the asteroid belts being stripped: now seems like a good time to start leaning on your favourite CSM member to get the "<a href="http://mararinn.blogspot.com.au/2012/02/maras-ideas-on-industry.html>move mining to grav sites</a>" idea from a few years ago pushed through (link is to my blog where I discuss this idea in the context of a whole swathe of improvements I'd like to see made to industry in general).

    Moving to grav sites means the ores can be spawned as demand for them rises (i.e.: you mine out a site, a new one spawns somewhere).

    That's enough spam from me for one post.

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    1. Saying this as someone who explores part-time. Don't go increasing the number of grav sites by an order of magnitudes. Finding the odd nice find can be sweet if you don't find anything better, but adding 5-10 sigs per system makes probing down results painful. I'm all for moving belts into the scaning system, but just not as grav sites. A new category alongside sigs and anomalies or something possibly.

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    2. You don't want to turn the grav site quantity up, you want them to turn up the *size* of the average grav sites by 4x or 8x. Which would make the grav sites worth scanning down and using. Right now, they're too small to be worth using over the belts in most cases.

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  14. Very interesting article, Jester. I think that stagflation may have been the term you were looking for rather than inflation, although in this case I'm betting that this is more of a market rush/panic than a new normal. You're right about CCP Sreegs getting busier soon. I'll bet that they also had these moves in mind while they thought up the new crimewatch CONCORD/fliping rules for hisec as well as the new ring mining idea CCP Soundwave mentioned at Fanfest.

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    1. You're absolutely right. I've made the correction.

      Delete
  15. Krixtal IcefluxorApril 6, 2012 at 5:04 AM

    Sure makes the idea of throwing an endless stream of T1 hulls into a flaming Jita much less appealing for a certain Coalition. Not really a good thing, as I was one of those hoping Jita actually closed for awhile, and the Markets were given an opportunity to spread out.

    And again speaking as an 'Evil Carebear', this sounds like it may even make H'gedddon unaffordable. Certainly smaller scale. This is NOT a good thing.

    This is great for my wallet atm, but this is indeed potentially game breaking. Excellent analysis.

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  16. Finally, finally! CCP has needed to make some of these changes for a long time to shake things up in New Eden. I just hope they make the industry and mining updates that are so badly needed to make those areas of the game fresh, interesting, and entertaining to engage in.

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  17. I think you mean Stagflation, not Inflation.

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    1. You're absolutely right. I've made the correction.

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  18. Sounds great. I actually would enjoy mining from time to time IF I would not know that I lose money while doing so, and IF I would not know that my primary competition are bots.

    A change to make mining again important was overdue long time imho. Next we need to take care of bots and increase ganking and pressure on miners. Those prices need to explode. Once they do "safe systems" to gather resources become again something with worth.

    After all, mining is the most "boring" activity in eve, so it should be at least eh best paid.

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  19. I was linked to this blog and i am sorry i read it. Misinformation at its best. CCP has stated that majority of minerals already come from mining. Thats where it should come from too.
    Botting has always been an issue in mmorpgs. whether its minig or mission bots there will awlays be some.
    I have mined though 3 hulkagedons and never even had an attempt at ganking. This really isnt as scary as you make it out to be.
    Thirdly, as a EU zone miner i wake up in the morning before donwtime and find asteroids to mine. If you cant do that efore such time then maybe it is time you switch systems.
    fouthly, no more drops of meta 1 modules will eventualyl make thier price high enough so industruals woudl be able to build them for profit, which will set the economy towards the balance, which is what was your whole point at the begining.
    finally, lowering the total isk in the economy woudl infact cause deflation, not inflation. miners are already underpaid and deserve a wage raise. i suggest you study some basic economy. prices will only rise as much as you let them. as the mineral prices start rising more people will be mining, therefore economy will reach its own balance of supply and demand.
    reducing rat bounties is good, infact reducing total isk in eve is great, thats the ONLY way to STOP inflation.
    bonus: maybe this means that CCP will finally make miner a profession, not a 6 month skill plan. because a it is now, all oher profession has a road for years, while miner hits a skill-wall in 6 months and there is nowhere to advance.

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    1. "CCP has stated that majority of minerals already come from mining. " Where?

      Since the minerals price didn't moved after drone regions stop ratting coz of war and majority of eve players must also believe in this, since the announcement of removing alloys from drone regions hasn't generated any speculation at all!

      Clearly the majority of minerals come from mining and not alloys and loot!! Or not!

      Just so you get an idea, I know a guy that after two weeks of gathering loot from is mates ratting, he build a carrier with the minerals from the loot! Clearly, loot generate almost no minerals...

      Also, there is no lowering of isk in economy, since the isk being destroyed is reducing every day with the fact that players are vets and dont need skillbooks. Other then this big sink and a few smaller ones, isk doesn't disappear, it just change hands! So, no deflation, just recession!

      seems its you that needs to learn some eve economics..

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    2. Don't get me wrong. I'm not saying that this isn't a good thing in the LONG run.

      In the SHORT run, a lot of people are going to get well and truly hosed.

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    3. @ nuno,
      The statement was found in CCP yearly economics report. i dont remmeber where exactly, but it was clear that majority of minerals come from mining and therefore the loot does not effect the market that much.
      Speculation of mineral market has always existed around news of change and it has nothing to do with end of eve economy or any such thing. it has always been there. it is logical that after changes mineral prices will rise to a certain point therefore stocking up and arbitrage occurs. Same thing happened when PI was launched, the NPC goods were hoarded, somne of those prices didnt stabilise for over 6 months, that however didnt bring the end of pi economy. While its true that your friend could have built a carrier from loot, it is the mere fact that majority of mission runners (at least those i know) rush though missions not looting at all, and especially not looting any drone alloys and the fact that there are more miners in game mining more hours a day (some possibly bots) than mission runners running missions is what makes mining add more minerals. could mission runners be main source of minerals? sure. are they in eve - no.
      Lowering the bounties will significantly lower the isk being throw into economy, as bounties are the main source of isk. the LP changes recently made LP shops drain more isk out of economy as well. all this accounts to a slower growth of isk amount in eve. i dont know the statistics, but i doubt that skillbooks are the main removal of isk. after all, i spent more isk in lp shop in a month than on skillbooks in 2 years. therefore lowering increase speed and possibility to even decrease amount of isk in economy is what can cause deflation. if anything, it will lower the inflation while raising the prices (for miners - the most underpaid profession), therefore i see no recession.

      @jester,
      Sorry if i misread you, i have not read your blog before so i based my opinion on this post alone, as i got linked to this. This most made it sound as if the changes are going to ruin the eve economy and doom the game for self destruction, which is false. There will be economical changes, but he economy will get more balanced if anything. Will there be short term problems? sure. but there always is.
      Lowering bounties wil

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  20. I will not be mining.
    If they want me to press to mining, I will just quit.

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    1. And you will never be forces to mine. Though "currently" you are losing the game if you mine. Because either you are not making profit or you are cheating and use a bot to mine. And even then I bet a bot would make more isk per hour if he doing something else than mining.

      Though mineral prices start to increase, so maybe we reached already the point when you are starting to make more isk than with sanctums or l4s or most incursion fleets. In the last years buying minerals from bots and idiots was the better way to acquire minerals.

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  21. I'd be interested to know the proportion of minerals currently finding their way to the market via each method - mining, drone alloys, and loot reprocessing. Of course, I doubt even diagoras could produce that one, given the complexity of the mineral lifecycle.

    Regarding EU vs US tz mining - I remember discussion at fanfest of changing the current mechanics of belts respawning at downtime. I doubt it's going to be part of inferno, but it is apparently on CCP's radar.

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    1. About three years ago, someone made a little area chart of mineral sources at that moment in time from the three sources. It was REALLY well done. I was hoping someone would link me to it in the comments.

      I'll keep looking for it today.

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  22. " someone's gonna have to sit in a Hulk."

    If it comes to that I am so out of here. The balance between grind time and fun time is a delicate one and tbh I liked it so far. This comes from a casual player, who is not really considering spending more grind time in Eve than I do now.

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    1. Do not forget, one mans dirt is another mans gold. The msot fun i have in eve is when i am sitting in a hulk. too bad i dont have much time for it anymore.

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    2. Oh, how i like when a few man mining fleet clears a belt of roids with hulks and an Orca!:) Sweet sound of the strip miners in one's ears. U can chat, read news, blogs, and the belt is shrinking. Listen to some laid back music, watch a movie, relax. It's a nice change from the usual pod pilot's life in EVE.:)

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  23. Correct me if I'm wrong, anyone, but just because they are removing *manufacturable* T1 items from the loot tables doesn't mean there will be no T1 item drops. Named stuff will still drop, and since there is not mention of an overall downturn in drop rates, it will drop more. Most named things are garbage and will still be reprocessed - and at essentially the same rates as before.

    The big shakeup is with the drone alloys, and that I'm very curious to see.

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    1. See my comment above about meta1-4 items.

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    2. Depends on how CCP has implemented the drop rate tables.

      For instance:

      If CCP has implemented a table that is a set of 100 cells. If you want "Item A" to have a 8% drop rate, then it fills 8 cells. "Item B" with a 4% drop rate would fill 4 cells.

      To remove "Item A" from the table, you clear the pointer to it in all of its corresponding cells, leaving them blank. When the system rolls a blank, no item drops.

      In this system, removing items lowers the overall rate at which "something" will drop.

      Delete
    3. I suspect that the drop tables for all items look something like this:
      Meta0: 52% chance of dropping
      Meta1: 26%
      Meta2: 13%
      Meta3: 6%
      Meta4: 3%
      With the type of drop calculated for each item individually.

      Theoretically, the simplest solution would then to be to drop the Meta0 rate to 0% and double the remaining rates.

      Delete
  24. Given minerals are a going to up and bounties down, I wonder if you will see a movement towards Amarr energy weapon based ships to save on ammo costs. I know I am looking at a viable Legion loadout using regular crystals for 0.0 ratting in gurista space.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. This happens already. Whenever you see cap-stable LOL-officer fit Paladins bot-ratting, they always have standard crystals loaded instead of faction ones...

      Delete
    2. Its nto as much as cost efficience here as the bot may not be sophisticated enough to change crystals if they burn out, and they do if you bot whole day.

      Delete
  25. I think you forgot one long time effect from this.

    "NPC ships will no longer drop manufacturable T1 loot. NPCs will continue to drop modules, however T1 items which have a blueprint will no longer drop, making player manufacturing the primary source for these items.

    Alloys have been removed from the rogue drones, and bounties have been added to them to bring them in line with other faction mobs."

    I've been supporting these exact changes for a long time. And, no, I'm a mission runner not a miner.

    As you said, in due time a lot of people will be impelled into mining. As a result, the whining about how horrible it is will go from 'very loud' to 'astronomical level'.

    CCP already mentioned reviewing mining and with this change they may very need to put it as high priority.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Actually, quite a few players *like* mining. It is a low stress, semi-AFK activity with a decent, if not exceptional, risk vs. return ratio.

      Miners spend most of their time chatting with their friends and others, while grinding away at the rocks and popping the occasional NPC rat.

      And, most of the "whining" you hear does not come from the full-time miners - it comes from the PVPers who want to make mining into a much easier ISK source to replace their lost ships/modules.

      Delete
    2. Right now the ratio (people that mine only for the isk)/(people that mine because they like) is very low. That's why there isn't that many complains.

      If mining ever become a good source of income that ratio will change a lot and that's when the complains will intensify.

      Delete
  26. This is both a nerf and a buff to drone region. I'm not sure if its worth it.

    Currently, drone region is the only part of Nullsec where industry works. People actually build stuff out there. Yeah, supposedly on some far off future date industry is supposed to work in all of Null, the CSM has been pushing for it as long as I can remember, but right now, it does work in drone. Is it really worth getting rid of just to put isk in their wallets?

    ReplyDelete
  27. Stagflation will only be a temporary problem as there is no meaningful resource constraints in EVE universe (and CCP being 'the creator' can just balance it if they want to).

    So when supply increases the market will find a new price equilibrium (or a new price range anyway throught the EVE "business" cycle -expansions cycles-).

    Overall is a good change to the game as far as balance goes, and inflation will sort itself if wages are reduced in the medium term anyway when ISK are more valuable if ISK fauces are reduced (or sinks increased, as was hinted in Fanfest).

    ReplyDelete
  28. (dusts of hulk alts)
    Happy TIMES are here AGAAAAAIN....
    (dances jig)

    In all seriousness, what, if anything, does this portend for the use of mining battleships>

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Mining battleships will be back in a big way, particularly Rokhs with their innate high resists.

      Delete
  29. On the down side, people are going to stop bypassing the "useless" hisec grav sites. I KNEW having an exploration main would pay off in the end... Everything's comin' up jdub!

    ReplyDelete
  30. I wonder if we'll see more people mission mining in the near future, especially if the belts start getting cleaned out...

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I wouldn't doubt that one bit, especially if mining low ends becomes as profitable as actually doing the mission itself. Mission mining also has the benefit of being chainable for a week.

      Delete
  31. well since they already baned 2500 bots thats not a problem and i see the ships returning to there values back when i started 4 years ago i think this will put a cap on the out of controll amount of pvp were its not wanted people will be less likely to throw away ships by grifing not that im in any way againce a lil ganking and what not i simply think its far out of control and this will balance that a bit

    also i find people offen under estmait the amount of people who like indy many of us cant aford to spend 4 hrs camping a gate for 3 kills some of us like to log on and mine while we are doing other things like clean the house do homework or the laundry the quite side of eve is a mush have and many people need it and they have been getting shit on for it for as long as iv played i think the changes ccp is doing is long over due

    ReplyDelete
  32. [I recently posted about this vurra thang...]
    The only way to "fix" inflation (if it is possible at all) is to give players a reason to SPEND moar ISK back to the game.

    Give players stuff they will really want to buy:
    T1.5 'specialty' NPC available ONLY ships, IE: Improved Shuttles; single role (USABLE) Frigs; Special Paint Jobs (not Corp) and the like or...

    Give Players costs players can't avoid:
    Taxes, Fees, Rents etc. paid to NOC corps/CONCORD. CCP slowly adds somewhat unavoidable ISK sinks such as Docking Bay rents/fees, CQ rents/fees or adds scaled fines to CONCORDABLE actions. These could be added in addition to the CONCORD action, or...

    The player finds his ship scrammed, webbed, neuted and permajammed, IE the offending player is "Arrested" and seriously higher fines (and the removal of all mods mebbe?) could be levied instead of shiploss, with the player being released to a system many jumps away from the criinal act.

    For instance, someone ganking in Jita instead of being CONCORDOKKENED, would be 'arrested', locked up (toon would transfer to a shipboard cell [CQ type]), then have to pay a steep fine, at which point he would be returned to his ‘bare hull’ ship as it undockws from a CONCORD "Orca" type/class ship now 30 hops from Jita. Depending on his sec status he could be released to Hisec (high sec status) or Losec (low sec status)...

    Either way, moar ISK moves from Players to The Game… CCP steadily monitors how the additional new special ships are selling and/or the new fines, fees, rents etc. are working to offset Inflation in New Eden…

    Just one man’s opinion… =]

    ReplyDelete
  33. As to downtime and timezone-issues,... Why stick to the 24 hour cycle? Make it 25 hours, so that all timezones will experience downtimes at different hours of the day...

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I guess not everything about our daily downtime is automatize.

      Delete
  34. CCP likes downtime where it is, because all the Icelanding staff are at work when it happens, in case of glitches.

    ReplyDelete