It isn't ours. It's RvB v. Pandemic Legion.
There are four scenarios that would allow Rote Kapelle to advance. Warning: some scary math follows. THD = Total Hell Death, i.e. a 125-0 match.
1) Red vs Blue defeats Pandemic Legion, and we defeat Kill It With Fire. RvB advances, we advance. Points are irrelevant. Best possibility for us.
2) RvB defeats PL. We are defeated by KIWF, but we score 39.25 more points in our match than PL does in theirs. RvB advances, we advance. This would be embarrassing for us in the extreme, but would allow us to advance. This would result in one 3-0 team (RvB) and three 1-2 teams. PL is currently 39 points ahead of us. KIWF is not in the running points-wise.
3) PL defeats RvB. We defeat KIWF, and we score 89.75 more points in our match than RvB does in theirs. PL advances, we advance. Most likely scenario that allows us to advance. An example of this scenario: PL THDs RvB and we THD KIWF. In which case, we, PL, and RvB are all 2-1. PL advances with 302 points. We advance with 263 points. RvB is left behind at 227.5 points.
4) PL defeats RvB. We defeat KIWF, and we score both 89.75 more points than RvB and 39.25 more points than PL. We advance, RvB advances. Least likely scenario. An example of this scenario: we THD KIWF, PL defeats RvB 85-34. In which case, we, PL, and RvB are all 2-1. We advance with 263 points. PL advances with 262 points. RvB is left behind with 261.5 points.
The nightmare scenario that doesn't allow us to advance:
1) We defeat KIWF. PL defeats RvB, but RvB scores 35.5 points or more, and we score 39.25 or fewer points than PL does. PL advances, RvB advances. An example of this scenario: PL defeats RvB 102.5 to 43. We defeat KIWF 95 to 52. (Those scores look familiar somehow...) In which case, we, PL, and RvB are all 2-1. PL advances with 279.5 points. RvB advances with 270.5 points. We are left behind with 190 points.
All RvB has to do to advance: score 35.5 points.
Most likely case tl;dr: We either need RvB to win, or we need them to score 35.5 or fewer points against PL in a loss.
See you in 25 minutes.