And just to hammer the point home: the unsub rate is non-linear. The players are the major source of game content. Every person that unsubs (or just stops logging in) makes it x% more likely that all his n subbed friends will do the same, and y% more likely that his m unsubbed friends won't come back. For someone like a :foreveralone: empire missionrunner, that xn.ym value is pretty tiny. For someone like the main FC of a large alliance, or Chribba, or Estel Arador, that xn.ym value will be hundreds or even thousands of times higher. In a situation like that you don't have to be a mathematical genius to realise that this means there's an unstable, unpredictable tipping point after which EVE will failcascade no matter what CCP do.Good Heavens, that's well-put. I'd add only one thing: those people with large values of xn.ym are playing a lot of Tanks and Heroes of Newerth right now. If CCP moved fast, they could draw a lot of them back. As long as lapsed EVE players care what's happening in game, it's not too late to get them back.
I don't pretend to know where the tipping point is exactly, but given that so many of the most visible players in EVE, the content creators, the motivators, the ones who have the largest values of xn.ym are either unsubbed, in skill maintenance mode, so just spinning their wheels in game... all I can say is if we have to "watch this space" much longer, there'll be nothing to watch but space. There really might be far less time than anyone realises.
Welcome to Jester's Trek.I'm your host, Jester. I've been an EVE Online player for about six years. One of my four mains is Ripard Teg, pictured at left. Sadly, I've succumbed to "bittervet" disease, but I'm wandering the New Eden landscape (and from time to time, the MMO landscape) in search of a cure.
You can follow along, if you want...
Tuesday, October 4, 2011
Meta Quote of the Week
I'm going to gamble that someone else is going to say something quotable before next Monday and post this quote from Malcanis today, in its entirety: