With DUST 514 shipping this year, with bringing in the tens of millions of people that play shooters on PSN into the New Eden universe, EVE could be the biggest game in the world at the end of 2012.The quote comes from an interview that Hilmar Pétursson and David Reid, CCP's new Chief Marketing Officer, conducted with Ten Ton Hammer last week. The quote itself is Reid talking about... wait. What is he talking about?
I've mentioned this before, but now it's time to start emphasizing it: DUST 514 could easily become the tail that starts to wag EVE's dog.
This quote simply serves to confirm that upper management at CCP is thinking that way, too. The Playstation Network has some 60 million accounts. EVE Online has, at best, two million accounts (most of those long inactive). To become an EVE-dwarfing success, all DUST 514 has to do is convince 5% of those PSN account-holders to play it for a while. If only 10% of them become long-term DUST subscribers, that makes DUST 514 an EVE-smashing success.
Does a successful DUST 514 launch automatically make EVE Online succeed? Maybe Mr. Reid and I disagree here, but no. From where I'm sitting, it doesn't... particularly since the EVE-DUST link still apparently exists only on a drawing board somewhere. Hopefully, there will be a lot of new information about this link at Fanfest in another month, but... you know... I kinda doubt it. I don't think CCP's had the time to really flesh this part of the equation out yet. Remember, the DUST 514 session at the CSM December Summit was cancelled because the DUST team wasn't ready to present anything at that time... not even the game itself. The CSM hasn't seen it. And unless The Mittani or Seleene or some other CSM6 member runs into the convention hall that first day of Fanfest, DUST 514 will be played by a random Fanfest attendee before it's played by a member of the CSM.
Am I worried about EVE becoming a subsidiary of the DUST 514 universe? Yep. A little bit.
Despite that, am I going to feel a little smug about predicting it would happen back in September if it happens? You betcha.
Will I be happy for CCP if it happens? Yeah, that too. Like I keep saying, I'm inconsistent. I'd like to see CCP succeed, and if this is what does it, more power to 'em. That said, I'm not going to be playing DUST 514. I'm going to be playing EVE.
A lot of people are predicting -- for various reasons -- that DUST 514 is going to fail. And sure, that's a possibility. If that happens, that leaves CCP with EVE as its successful product.
But the worry remains. Overall, there's a pretty remarkable lack of EVE content in this interview, despite the fact that both Reid and Pétursson keep injecting it into the discussion. It's just that every time they do, they inject it as a property to learn from, and features and technology to insert into DUST 514 and World of Darkness.