Yep, I screwed up. And I will repeat my ability to be an anomaly on the Internet by freely admitting it. ;-)
In yesterday's post about the Target Breaker module, I missed the fact that the chance of the Target Breaker working is going to be dependent on the number of people that have you locked. I then talked about a theoretical example of a 30v100 fleet fight using them. In that example, I assumed equal chances of the two sides getting locks broken. That's a total screw-up on my part.
That said, it doesn't matter all that much.
Let's stick with my example. Only this time, we'll give the 100-ship fleet a 75% chance of getting their locks broken. Meanwhile, we'll give the 30-ship fleet a 25% chance of getting their locks broken. Again, we'll assume it takes five seconds to lock and destroy a target. At the end of that time, again, 12 ships will have been locked. The 100-ship fleet will destroy three ships and nine will get away. The 30-ship fleet will destroy nine ships and three will get away. The end result at the end of the first minute is the same: 18 ships will be on field facing 88 ships. But there are nine ships from the 30-ship gang still out there, so let's extend this fight another minute.
During the second minute, the three escaped ships from the 100-ship gang return, increasing their gang size back to 91. The nine escaped ships from the 30-ship gang return, increasing their gang size back to 27. In the second minute, nine more ships from the large gang are destroyed and three are driven off. Three more ships from the small gang are destroyed and nine are driven off. At the end of the second minute, 15 ships remain on field from the 30-ship gang... facing 79 ships from the 100-ship gang. The ratio of this fight at the end of the second minute is 5.27:1. Even giving the smaller fleet a massive advantage to their Target Breaker chance, the larger gang is still shrinking much less quickly than the small gang.
In short, even though more ships from the smaller gang will be escaping, this proposed Target Breaker module is not going to change the dynamics of fighting a blob at all. The only change will be that more ships from the smaller gang escape being destroyed by the blob.
But let's talk about something else I missed. Let's say the percentage chance of the Target Breaker working was set to 1% per the number of ships that have you locked. So the 30-ship gang's Target Breaker has a 100% chance of working when facing a 100-ship blob. Weirdly, the larger blob still has the advantage.
They can break their 100-ship gang into three 30-ship wings. And once they've done that, they can start attacking the other fleet's ships three ships at a time instead of one at a time. There hasn't been that much motivation to do this sort of thing in EVE Online to date because it would add a lot of confusion. But very occasionally, Rote Kapelle likes to split our fleets in two and then send the two smaller fleets in opposite directions through Syndicate. The two fleets use separate comms and the two FCs check in with each other from time to time. If either smaller fleet finds a target that they can't deal with, then the two fleets merge up and "form Voltron" to deal with the larger fleet.
Theoretically, there's nothing stopping the 100-ship fleet from splitting in the same way and assigning wing commanders and separate target callers... but staying together. Again, there hasn't been any incentive to do this yet. But this kind of Target Breaker module would create some incentive to do it. A 100-ship fleet wastes a lot of DPS over-killing targets when attacking a smaller fleet. This kind of split DPS would actually increase the DPS out of the 100-ship fleet. Smaller fleets trying to take them on would actually be worse off than we are now.
So... yeah. I missed a spot. But I stick to my main point: anyone who sees the Target Breaker module as a way to attack blobs... nope. It's a mod that -- if anything -- is going to make it easier for blobs to kill you.
Thanks for all of the comments on the previous post!