Welcome to Jester's Trek.
I'm your host, Jester. I've been an EVE Online player for about six years. One of my four mains is Ripard Teg, pictured at left. Sadly, I've succumbed to "bittervet" disease, but I'm wandering the New Eden landscape (and from time to time, the MMO landscape) in search of a cure.
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Friday, April 26, 2013

Who won't be on CSM8

As I write this, we're about 32 hours from learning who will be on CSM8, so there are a couple of posts that I'd like to get out before we learn the results.  Both are quickies.

I've listed who I believe will be on CSM8.  How about the people I believe won't, and why?  In rough order of "who I wish would be on CSM8", that list starts with:

Roc Wieler
A lot of people have dismissed Roc for being a fitness buff in a game not exactly swarming with fitness buffs, or for being a role-player in a game where role-players are sometimes held in less than the highest esteem.  Dismissing Roc for these reasons is short-sighted (and of course, political).  There's no question that Roc has the best interests of the community in mind, is passionate about the game, understands many aspects of the game more than well enough to be a CSM member, and most important, has the real life experience and discipline that the job requires.  So it's rather depressing to me that we're likely going to miss out on having this man on CSM8.  I've already accused him once of hiding his light under a bushel and he wrote an impassioned defense of himself.  It probably won't be enough.  That's a real shame.
Steve Ronuken
I caught some heat for not endorsing Steve, but it's not because I don't think he would make a good CSM member.  I do and he would.  In my view, Steve simply lacks the experience and name recognition to make a good player advocate.  He struck me as a really fantastic candidate... for CSM10.  In short, I think Steve is in exactly the same boat this year that I was in two years ago.  I encourage him to run again.
Psychotic Monk
I think the voting numbers are going to be too weak to allow very many -- if any -- single issue candidates on CSM8 that aren't part of a null-sec bloc.  If James 315 had stayed in the race, a slot would have been his to lose.  But Psychotic didn't really capitalize on James dropping out the way he maybe should have.  It mnight have been interesting to see a James 315 endorsement.  Hell, maybe such an endorsement happened.  But if it did, it happened below the radar.
Unforgiven Storm
For the same reason, I think the "industrialist Goon" is also out of luck.  Too many industrialists will see the Goon ticker.  Too many Goons will see the "not on official ballot" thing.  This is a shame because industrialists in general have been unrepresented on the CSM the last several years.  Meissa Anunthiel was their advocate, but far too often he's MIA.
Mike Azariah
The single-issue candidate list continues with Mike.  Don't get me wrong: Mike is a fantastic guy: smart, low-key, relaxed, upbeat, and knowledgeable about incursions and role-playing.  He also should have the name recognition to be successful.  But he's another single-issue candidate in a year when single-issue candidates aren't going anywhere.  If he runs again -- and I encourage him to! -- he needs to broaden his base.
Unfortunately for this candidate, EVE voters realized two years ago that promising to fix specific issues within the game is a waste of time for a CSM candidate.  Sure, lots of people like him(?) but their votes for this candidate will be well down the list.  That said, he'll do pretty well in terms of votes, I suspect.
The first really tricky entry on this list.  If Ali Aras doesn't make the CSM, that vaults core into a much better position.  I'm pretty sure one of the two has a good shot, but not both.  There aren't enough Provibloc voters to put both of these candidates on the CSM.  And I think Ali has done a MUCH better job courting newer players.
Another really tricky one that I could easily be wrong about, but it won't be a tragedy at all if I am.  I've finally had a chance to meet Korvin at Fanfest yesterday after chatting with him for several weeks on and off.  He's a really smart guy, personable, and with long experience in both the game and real life.  Certainly, I believe the "Russian candidate" will be either Korvin or Greene Lee.  But who?  I already mentioned in my first post on this subject that this race could be too close to call.
Cipreh, Chitsa Jason, Ayeson
There is room on CSM8 for -- at most -- two wormhole candidates.  I think James will defeat Cipreh among those who are looking for someone with extensive in-game w-space experience.  In my opinion, Chitsa and Ayeson will fall in the early rounds to STV mechanics feeding their votes to other w-space candidates.
I really like riverini, but he talks as many people out of not voting for him as he talks into voting for him.  There's no question that he's knowledgable about the game and its players.  He'd also make a great player advocate.  But he's too divisive to actually be elected.
Arctura, Daehan Minhyok, Travis Musgrat, Awol Aurix
In my opinion, voting numbers are going to be too soft to allow down-ballot bloc candidates to push out stronger independent candidates.  But if I'm wrong about this, it will likely be the fault of the Javascript voting scripts that were available in the first few days of voting that made voting full slates of 14 candidates very easy for the blocs.
And that's everybody.  Who am I wrong about, Dear Readers?


  1. Pretty damn close to my list:

    Good luck tomorrow.

  2. Congrats, Jester. As I posted previously, though, you were an automatic shoo-in, since CCP wants you at the Iceland meeting.

    You might have noticed some of your "won't be on the CSM8" candidates did make it easily, while certain guaranteed-to-win null candidates failed to make the cut.


    Now, just how *did* those numbers work, given that there were less overall voters this year, and given that both CFC and HFC have even more members than last year?

    Hmmm. Hmmm.

    Well, give Dolan a bit of time to massage the data, before the numbers are released. I'm sure that his bosses want to make sure he didn't do anything extremely silly, like having Chitsa or Mike Azariah beat out Banlish and Kaleb by just one vote each....

    Ah, yes... my tinfoil hat is sparkling today....

    1. If you look at who actually got in, the HBC massively failed. Check out the "TEST fails" voting simulation: http://themittani.com/features/horseracing-some-possible-csm8-results-0?page=0%2C4 .

      It's almost identical to the actual result. Chitsa ended up beating Cipreh for the second wormhole slot, but that couldn't be predicted ahead of time as it just came from internal wormhole politics and preferences. Corebloodbrothers was replaced with Mike Azariah, a switch which will likely be explained by my overestimate of Providence enthusiasm. We didn't both have enough top votes, and it's likely that I pulled more outside top votes and benefited strongly from Ripard's endorsement.

      We'll see when the results are finally published, but there's really no need for tinfoil.

    2. @Ali - there is always a need for tinfoil, when transparency is lacking.

      They could have released the ballots, on a daily basis, during the election, but did not. No doubt the excuse will be "because we wanted to keep the results as a surprise for Fanfest", but that is utter crap.

      Then, they promised the ballots on Monday, but failed to do so. No doubt the excuse will be "because we were busy with Fanfest". Ok, sure right - it takes a lot of time to run a script to filter out voter names/ids and then release a data dump.

      Sorry, but the final results of the election are *exactly* what CCP asked for, after all of the yapping by Unifex and Co, about wanting a CSM which is more representative of a wider number of players. It is obvious that CCP is delaying on the release of the ballots, because they need time to make the ballots match the election results - and this is where STV's complexity is working against them.

      BTW - your "TEST fails" voting sim was "almost identical to the actual result", but my "tinfoil hat" voting sim was *exactly* on with the final results. Is that proof enough for you that a conspiracy does exist? Nah, I didn't think so. A sim isn't proof.


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