Welcome to Jester's Trek.
I'm your host, Jester. I've been an EVE Online player for about six years. One of my four mains is Ripard Teg, pictured at left. Sadly, I've succumbed to "bittervet" disease, but I'm wandering the New Eden landscape (and from time to time, the MMO landscape) in search of a cure.
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Monday, July 29, 2013

Quote of the Week: Attack Delve

OK, I have to say that this quote is a little bit troubling:
The CFC will almost definitely attack Delve, either in a continuation of their full-scale invasion, or with prodding tests like we saw before 1-SMEB. It will give us an opportunity to put some strain on a rebuilt leadership structure and see how we function. I will be constantly reevaluating our position the entire time, but for now that’s the plan.
That's from Boodabooda, leader of TEST.  It's covered without comment on both TMC and EN24.

It's troubling because it signals (between the lines) that there was some kind of back-channel negotiated peace offered by TEST over the weekend... and the CFC rejected it out of hand.  I said last week that Fountain has traditionally been the road to an invasion of Delve.  Goons have about a 50/50 success rate at invading Delve.

But if the CFC invades again this time, I cannot realistically expect TEST to hold.  There's no better reasons for them to hold on in Delve than they held on in Fountain.  Matter of fact, the opposite is true: the CFC will be charged up by their victory, flush with new cash and (quite valuable) land prizes to hand out to their allies, and will come to Delve in even greater numbers.  It's not like EVE has supply lines as such.  You build your jump bridge network, you put up your staging structures, and you go.

In a traditional land-based war, a longer supply line hurts the attacker and benefits the defender.  This is because the attacker has more territory to defend against guerrilla and flanking strikes and because the defender can implement a scorched earth policy as they fall back.  It also helps in terms of "trading space for time": you fight a series of defensive actions until your industrial complex can spin up (more or less how the U.S. originally intended to fight Japan and how Russia fought Germany in WWII).  But in EVE the opposite is true for all of these elements: the defenders can't follow any sort of scorched earth policy, flanking attacks in EVE are all but non-existent, guerrilla attacks are not possible, and industrial output in New Eden is all but unlimited all the time.  So the traditional benefits of fighting a defensive fall-back war simply don't come into play in EVE.

The only benefits TEST gets from falling back are additional time to negotiate with their allies and time for the situation in the south to stabilize.  But are TEST's traditional allies going to be interested in coming to their aid after one alreaady-lost lost war?  I suppose it's possible.  But is it realistic?

All in all, I hope the Goons do not attack Delve and instead allow the current status quo to stabilize for a while.  Otherwise, I can't expect TEST to hold out more than another six weeks or so and we're going to go into EVE's traditional autumn doldrums facing a very dull null-sec game indeed.


  1. I would like to disagree with you over "endless industry". The Goons themselves proved that by the Gallente Ice Interdiction. If Eve was a living organism, there are other key vulnerabilities which can be choked. (I just lack in interest in an unproven theoretical novelty).

    As for Delve, such a successful invasion would possibly prove that the CFC has outgrown any control mechanism through competition - and that CCP may need intervene. Something completely unwelcome across the game. If such a concept seems impossible - I would direct to you the precedent cycle of nerfs and buffs within hi-sec to maintain the balanced edge of competition.

    1. CFC managed remove any serous threat in north (by buying out Black Legion) while the N3 still had to deal with Russian in South. It doesn't prove that CFC is unstoppable.

      Also it didn't help that PL and many TEST FCs didn't want to invest much effort into that war.

  2. Well. Dull for you (and the rest of us non-Goons) anyhow.

  3. There are some supply lines still ;)

  4. Test's ideas about how the war will happen have been missing at a pretty good rate. I wouldn't put too much faith in what is released by test. As for goons not commenting, that could also be attributed to goons not seeing a value in doing so.

    The war was originally about taking moons from test. If anything, I think the focus might shift to weakening tests allies, now that test has been proven incompetent to stand alone. I wouldn't be surprised to see solar getting support in the form of drawing out n3.

  5. Respectfully Rip, I disagree. If this war has shown us anything, it's that flanking attacks work and logistics are a very serious concern. Proof is Black Legion tearing apart CFC innards while they were occupied in Fountain (meaning even CFC for all their power isn't capabble of fighting on two fronts at once) and N3 abandoning ghe front due to logistical nightmare of moving their entire fleet from east to west and back every night.

  6. I think N3 and PL blew their only chance at stopping CFC in their tracks by abandoning Fountain.

    TEST is beaten into the ground now, despite crazy participation in the 6VDT-H battle they won't be able to stand up to CFC anymore.

    I just hope - even with all my dislike towards them - that Goons and their cronies gather their strength, line up with SOLAR and kick the everliving shit out of N3. They made the choice, they gotta pay the consequences.

    Should've stayed in Fountain.

  7. "...defender can implement a scorched earth policy as they fall back." Is this not something that could be implemented by CCP as a "feature"?

  8. NC./N3 & PL need a reliable stop gap against SOLAR.

    My crystal ball says TEST owns Cache by November.

    1. Why does this all look like the prelude to Great War all over again, only with roles switched?

  9. "... it signals (between the lines) that there was some kind of back-channel negotiated peace offered by TEST over the weekend... and the CFC rejected it out of hand."

    It's as or more likely that the peace offer came from the CFC side and was rejected by Test. I've already written why that offer would have been made, though I'm confident it would not have been made on terms the current Test leadership would find acceptable.

    1. Yeah, right. Not even.

      Ever since CCP's announcement of the proposed changes to moon resources, Mittens made it pretty clear that CFC would do whatever they needed to do to secure sufficient moons to maintain their income. Everyone did the math and knew how many moons would be required. If this meant declaring war on TEST, so be it.

      And, long before the moon resource changes went live, the TEST leadership was already on their hands & knees, begging Mittens to keep the peace - but, ofc, they didn't exactly offer to give up any moons.

      The "back-channel negotiated peace" wasn't the first offer - just the latest in attempts to try to get Mittens to call off the war. Pretty much it was the TEST leadership offering to "give" CFC some portion of what they had already taken, in exchange for CFC giving the rest of it back to TEST. Hmm... sure, that sounds like a good deal.

      Anyways, CFC simply has no reason to negotiate with TEST at this point. They have taken most of what they wanted, and there is nothing that the TEST leadership can say or do to change matters at this point.

  10. "All in all, I hope the Goons do not attack Delve and instead allow the current status quo to stabilize for a while. Otherwise, I can't expect TEST to hold out more than another six weeks or so and we're going to go into EVE's traditional autumn doldrums facing a very dull null-sec game indeed."

    Er... if CFC does not continue the war into Delve, exactly what exciting null-sec game do you expect to take its place? War is the only game worth playing in null.

    The best thing for CFC to do now is to push the war forward, crush TEST utterly, and then withdraw - leaving Delve wide open for everyone else to fight over, while CFC secures their gains in Fountain.

    With their new moons secured, CFC can supply war materials and mercs to all sides in Delve, raking in even more ISK and keeping their pilots active and happy. And, as long as Delve is being fought over, there won't be anyone to challenge CFC's claim to Fountain.


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